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Comprehension Text for Nov 2020 (Winter) IIMU -NDPH-3rd year Term 2 Homework assignments
Almost overnight, Russia's $630b reserves have gone worthless (Part-2)
Mar 6, 2022, 21:09 IST
Indo-Russian trade is barely $8 billion, whereas Indo-USA trade is upward of $100 billion. So it is clear which side Indian exporters would willingly go. Something similar happened when the West (only a few countries, led by America) had imposed sanctions against Iran. Then too, most Indian banks voluntarily chose to stay away from Iran deals even though there were very big export opportunities for Indians. But India had big import dependence for oil from Iran; hence the public sector bank, UCO Bank, was practically forced to be the bank for settling deals with Iran.
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The UCO Bank set up a rupee account for Iranian government from which India’s exporters were paid rather than getting paid directly from Iran in their currency. In the present case, India is again setting up a similar mechanism for direct rupee to rouble (Russian currency) transactions so as to bypass dollar based clearing on American soil. But the big lesson is that Russia, despite having a huge pile of foreign assets (in dollars, euros) of nearly $630 billion, is finding it mostly worthless. Russia’s export surplus is 7% of its GDP, so it gets more foreign currency earnings than it spends as imports. That surplus is accumulated in foreign exchange reserves, mostly in the form of American treasury bonds, deposits with other central banks and Euro bonds. One fifth is stored as gold metal. Except for the metal (which too nobody will buy from Russia at this stage), all other forex assets can become worthless due to the severe sanctions.
Since 2014, Russia has tried to move away from dollar and euro assets, and has accumulated nearly 13% of its assets in Chinese currency (renminbi) denominated assets. But there is a limit on what the Chinese can sell to Russians. Also, the renminbi is not yet a “hard currency”. So this is a wake-up call for all countries that have accumulated a huge pile of foreign exchange reserves. India too has more than $600 billion and euro assets. If you are under sanctions, when you try to encash those assets, the counterparty (American or European central banks) may choose not to honour that transaction. Then you are left holding worthless paper. What then is a war chest if not dollar assets? Gold? But what if there are no takers? And what will you exchange gold for? Dollars? The sanctions experience post Ukraine cease-fire will make many dollar acquisitive countries think long and hard about what is their self-insurance policy to protect against currency crises (as happened to India in 1991, and East Asia in 1997). Russia’s rouble is already down 40% and it is facing an imminent financial crisis. And its large stock of forex brings no cheer.
Almost overnight, Russia's $630b reserves have gone worthless (Part-2)